The Big Ten Tournament tipped off its second day of action Thursday afternoon with the 8 vs 9-seed matchup between the Oregon Ducks and Indiana Hoosiers. Coming in as 1.5-point favorites, the Ducks closed the game on a 16-5 run to advance to round number three with a 72-59 win.
For their reward, they will face the 1-seed Michigan State Spartans Friday, March 14, at 12 PM ET.
In the teams’ only face-off this season, on Feb. 8, MSU took home an 86-74 win on the strength of a 50-24 margin in the second half.
What should fans expect the second time around, a tournament quarterfinals berth on the line?
Michigan State Spartans, Oregon Ducks Both Riding a Hot Streak into Big Ten Tourney
Both programs finished the regular season on a 7-game win streak. Oregon (23-8, 12-8) went unbeaten after falling to the 7th-ranked Spartans, a stretch highlighted by an overtime win against #18 Wisconsin.
MSU (26-5, 17-3) ran the gauntlet following an upset L to Indiana, rattling off wins against five ranked foes to claim the Big Ten championship outright.
Their hot finish to the season earned Tom Izzo his 5th Big Ten Coach of the Year Award, making him the oldest coach to do so. He also passed Bobby Knight for the most conference wins all-time with MSU’s comeback victory over Illinois Feb. 15. Now at 360 in his career, Izzo will look to add to his total on Friday.
The Spartans will have the advantage of fresh legs. Having earned a double bye to the semifinals, they have not played since Sunday. Oregon will have less than 24 hours’ rest after beating the Hoosiers.
Last time they played, the game Izzo tied Knight’s record, MSU closed at 8.5-point home faves. This time the game will take place at a neutral location, the Indiana Pacers’ Gainbridge Fieldhouse, home to all Big Ten tourney action this year.
Both teams have been hot, but the Spartans have the rest advantage. Although Oregon ended up beating Indiana by double digits, the Hoosiers were within two, 56-54, late in the second half. MSU ended its regular season by crushing the rival Wolverines, 79-62, in a game that never felt close.
All of this points to an opening line around 5 to 7 points in favor of Michigan State.
Players To Watch on Both Sides
Oregon: Two Ducks were named to coaches’ All-Big Ten 3rd Team, center Nate Bittle and guard Jackson Shelstad. Bittle also won a spot on the All-Defense team, along with guard TJ Bamba.
On the season, Bittle led Oregon with 14.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.2 blocks. While the Hoosiers held him to only 7 points on 2-8 shooting, he contributed 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals and 2 rejections.
Shelstad, who scored a team-high 18 points against Indiana; Bamba, who added 17; and senior Keeshawn Barthelemy (9 points, 5 assists) round out the Ducks who averaged double figures this season. Bamba also provided a team-best 1.8 steals and 2.9 assists.
Interviewed after Oregon’s second round win, Bamba said he had hoped to face the Spartans, giving a reinvigorated Ducks squad a chance to avenge their earlier loss.
Michigan State: Coaches’ All-Big 3rd Team also featured two Spartans, guards Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson. Akins was also featured on the All-Defense squad, while Richardson was named an All-Big freshman.
Led by a strong backcourt, the Spartans claim depth as their calling card. 10 players played 30 regular season games while getting at least 13.7 minutes per contest. Richardson has emerged as the bucket-getter the team sorely needed. Boosting his season average to 11.6 (52.4 FG%, 38.8 3P%), he has reached double figures in nine straight games.
The senior Akin leads MSU with 12.9 PPG, but Izzo has not had to rely on him so heavily since Richardson’s surge.
Two Matchup Points To Consider, Plus a Prediction
Neither team is full of sharpshooters. The Spartans’ 30.2% success rate and 5.9 3PM rank last in the conference. However, they are 1st in opponent 3P% (28.0) and 5th in makes allowed (6.7).
Oregon’s offense is middle of the pack in both categories. Defensively, the Ducks also limit opponent success from beyond the arc, limiting shooters to 31.5%.
When they played this season, however, both teams fared well from long disaste, as MSU went 8-18 on triples (44.4%) and Oregon hit 10 of 27 (37%). While Richardson has given Michigan State a shooting boost, some regression could be coming.
The glass should be another crucial battleground. One of Oregon’s biggest hurtles will be overcoming the Spartans’ rebounding tenacity; MSU ranked 2nd in both rebounds (42.4) and opponent rebounds allowed (30.7). It will be up to Bittle to dominate the boards for Oregon. In their earlier matchup, the Spartans outrebounded the Ducks 40 to 27.
While both teams have capable offenses, Michigan State’s defense, top 5 in KenPom defensive rating, could dictate the game. February winners of this matchup, the Spartans double up on the Ducks in this one, 76-68.
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