The ice cold Miami Heat host the Phoenix Suns tonight in the NBA. Miami is currently out of sorts and have lost six-straight games. They return home tonight to face off against the high scoring Phoenix Suns. Despite the Heat struggling to win games recently, they are a shocking 3.5-point favorite tonight against the Suns. That spread should tell you everything you need to know when betting this game. If it didn’t, continue reading to fully understand!
Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Game Preview
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73026356/1180788717.0.jpg "Super Telling Spread in the Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Game 1/29 1")
The Miami Heat (24-22, 7th in the East) host the Phoenix Suns (26-20, 6th in the West) tonight at 7:30pm ET, at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL.
The Heat are a 3.5-point favorite and the total is set at 229.5 (odds via DraftKings).
Miami is currently on a six-game losing streak with their most recent loss being at the Knicks. During this streak, the Heat have lost three games at home and three on the road. Their current record at home is 12-10, the 2nd worst in the ten teams currently in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.
During their six-game losing streak, Miami has lost to the Raptors, Hawks, Magic, Grizzlies, Celtics, and the Knicks. They are losing on average of 16.83 points per game in their last six games.
The Phoenix Suns are on a two game skid where they lost to the Pacers and the Magic, and they have a 12-9 record on the road this year. The Suns had a six-game win prior to falling to the Pacers last Friday by two points.
The Heat and the Suns have played one game against each other back on January 5th. The Suns won that game at home 113-97.
Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Prediction and Bets
As said earlier, the spread in this game is very telling, but gut instinct is never a good enough reason to bet a game. It is always important to look at where the money and bets are going. It is also important to use multiple different sources when looking for betting splits. Pikkit is a great app to find this information as well as Vegas Insider.
According to Pikkit, 44.9% of the bets and 64% of the money is coming in on the Miami Heat.
Vegas Insider, another free and very useful site, has 40% of the bets and 63% of the money on the Miami Heat.
What does this mean?
Whenever you see a noticeable difference in money and betting percentages, it usually means that a sharp side can be identified. When a high amount of money, like we are seeing in the Heat/Suns game, but a low amount of bets come in on a team, that typically means that the bet is sharp.
Sharp bettors have a lot of money to bet and ultimately move lines. Public bettors typically bet small amounts, and their bets have little to no impact on a game line. So a high percentage of money, but a low percentage of bets coming in on the Heat means that the Miami Heat are most likely the sharp bet.
Also, just think to yourself a little here. The Miami Heat are a 3.5-point favorite, despite being on a six-game losing streak, having one of the worst home records in playoff contending teams, and are playing a high powered Phoenix Suns offense.
The obvious play, and the public bet (proved by the betting splits), is the Phoenix Suns. It typically is not the smartest move to bet the obvious play and to side with the public. For that reason, the Miami Heat is the bet tonight, on the spread, against the Phoenix Suns.
MIA -3.5
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